全傑科技 DecisionTools Suite 4.5.4 Industrial Edition 英文正式版(決策分析風險軟體)





破解說明:安裝序號:
Serial:11857441
Key:8E5FDA



軟體簡介:



全傑科技DecisionToolsSuite4.5.4IndustrialEdition英文正式版(決策分析風險軟體)

相關網站:
http://www.chemoffice.com.tw/html/Product/index.php?soft_id=3399






破解方法:


中文化說明:

內容說明:
Therearemanyriskanddecisionanalysistoolsonthemarkettoday.But
mostofthemfocusononespecificanalyticaltechnique,likesimulationor
decisiontrees.Andmostofthemaretailoredtoaspecificindustryneed,
suchasinsuranceclaimsmodelingoroilprospecting.Furthermore,these
toolscanruntensofthousands,evenmillionsofdollars.Whatyouneedis
anintegratedsetoftoolsthatcombinethebestanalyticalmethods,canbe
appliedtodifferentproblems,andthatisreasonablypriced.Looknofurther
thantheDecisionTools?Suite!

DecisionToolsThatWorkTogether
TheDecisionTools?Suiteisanintegratedsetofproductsdesignedtowork
togethertoprovidecombinedanalysesandmaximumfunctionality-optimum
decisionanalysisinonepackage!TheDecisionToolsSuitebringstogether
uptosevenproducts:@RISK,PrecisionTree?/sup>,TopRank?/sup>,
RISKOptimizer?/sup>,BestFit?/sup>,RISKview?,and@RISKAccelerator?/sup>.
Installationisfastandeasy,usingasingleCD-ROM.Theprogramsthemselves
havebeendesignedtoworktogetherinanintegratedenvironment,running
fromacommontoolbarinMicrosoftExcel.

WiththeDecisionToolsSuite,youcanperformadvancedanalysesyoucouldnot
performwithanysingleproduct.CreateadecisiontreeinPrecisionTree,
thenuse@RISKtorunaRiskAnalysisonit.Takedatastoredinanother
workbook,useBestFittofindthedistributionthatfitsthatdata,anduse
thedistributionwith@RISK.

"DecisionToolsisareallyimportantsuiteoftools,andIapplaudPalisade's
efforttobetterintegratesomeofthemintothe@RISKmodelingframework."
BruceSiegel,EngineeringandBusinessProcessConsultant,LosGatos,
California

TheDecisionToolsSuiteincludesthefollowingproducts:

@RISK(ProfessionalEdition)
TheRiskAnalysisandSimulationadd-inforExcel.@RISKaddsthepowerof
MonteCarlosimulationtoanyspreadsheetmodel.Replaceuncertainvalues
inyourspreadsheetwith@RISKfunctionswhichrepresentarangeof
possiblevalues.Selectoneormorebottom-linecellsasoutputs,andstarta
simulation.@RISKrecalculatesyourspreadsheethundredsoreventhousandsof
times,eachtimeselectingrandomvaluesfromthe@RISKfunctionsyou』ve
entered.Theresult:adistributionofpossibleoutcomesandthe
probabilityofgettingthoseresults.Thisnotonlytellsyouwhatcould
happeninagivensituation,buthowlikelyitisthatitwillhappen.
Resultscanbedisplayedashigh-resolutiongraphsandinafull
statisticalreport.AdvancedfeaturesincludeSensitivityandScenario
Analyses,overlaygraphs,andmultiplesummarygraphs.TheDecisionTools
Suitecomeswith@RISK4.5Professional,whichintegratesRISKview4.5for
distributionviewing,andBestFit4.5fordistributionfitting(seebelow).
And@RISK4.5runsuptotentimesfasterthanpreviousversions,and
includesanintuitiveMicrosoftOffice-styleinterface.

PrecisionTree(StandardorProfessionalEdition)
TheDecisionAnalysisadd-inforExcel.Createinfluencediagramsand
decisiontreesrightinyourexistingspreadsheets!Useinfluencediagramsto
seetherelationshipsbetweencomponentsofaproblem,thendecisiontreesto
modelthesequenceofevents.Resultsincludeafullstatisticalreportand
riskprofilegraphs.SensitivityAnalysistellsyouwhichfactorsinyour
decisionaremostimportant.Advancedfeaturesincludelinkedtrees,logic
nodes,andreferencenodes.PrecisionTreeProaddspolicysuggestiongraphs
andstrategyregiongraphs!

TopRank(StandardorProfessionalEdition)
TheWhat-ifAnalysisadd-inforExcel.TakeanyspreadsheetandTopRank
automaticallydetermineswhichcellsaffectresultsthemostandranksthem
inorderofimportance.ResultscanbedisplayedasTornadographsandina
fullstatisticalreport.AdvancedfeaturesincludeaWhat-ifWizard,Multi-
WayWhat-ifAnalysis,andsupportfordatatables.TopRankProfeatures
unlimitedMulti-WayWhat-ifAnalysis.

RISKOptimizer(IndustrialEdition)
ThesimulationandoptimizationsolutionforExcel.Optimizeyour@RISK
modelstofindthebestpossiblesolutiontoyourproblem!RISKOptimizer
combinesgeneticalgorithmoptimizationwithMonteCarlosimulationtofind
thebestpossiblecombinationoffactorstoleadtoadesiredresult.For
instance,youcouldfindtheoptimalcombinationofprojectstomaximizeyour
firm』sprofits.AvailableintheDecisionToolsSuiteIndustrial.

BestFit
ThedistributionfittingsolutionforWindows.BestFittakesdata(nowup
to100,000pointsorpairswithBestFit4.5)andfindsthedistribution
functionthatbestfitsthatdata.BestFitacceptsthreetypesofdata:
sample,density,andcumulative.BestFittestsupto26distributiontypes
usingadvancedoptimizationalgorithms.Resultsaredisplayedgraphicallyand
throughastatisticalreportwhichincludesgoodness-of-fitstatistics.
BestFit4.5offerscompletecontroloverfittingparameters,andoffersnew
graphicsandanOffice-styleinterface.BestFitdistributionscanbeused
directlyin@RISK,TopRank,orPrecisionTreemodels.TheDecisionTools
SuiteincludesBestFitfullyintegratedwith@RISK4.5,andalsoasastand-
aloneapplication.

RISKview
Thedistributionviewingcompanionprogram.Itisapowerfultoolfor
viewing,assessing,andcreatingprobabilitydistributions.Drawdistribution
functionswiththeDistributionArtistandplacethemin@RISKmodelsas
Generaldistributions.RISKviewalsocalculatesthedistributionthatbest
fitsyourhand-drawncurvefrom37distributiontypes!NowRISKview4.5
offerssharpergraphicsthaneverbefore,slidingdelimitersongraphs,and
overlaygraphs.TheDecisionToolsSuiteincludesRISKviewintegratedwith
@RISK4.5,andalsoasastand-aloneapplication.

@RISKAccelerator
Theparallel-processingsolutionforfastersimulations.Speeduplarge
simulationsbyusingallCPUsinamulti-CPUmachine.IfyourPChastwo
processors,yoursimulationswillrunnearlytwiceasfast!Withintegrated
@RISKAccelerator,@RISKIndustrialletsyoutakefulladvantageofthe
additionalprocessingspeedavailablewithincreasinglypopularmulti-
processormachines.

Standard,Professional,andIndustrialSuiteVersionsAvailable
TheDecisionToolsSuitecomesinthreeversions–Standard,Professionaland
Industrial.Allversionsinclude@RISK4.5Professional,BestFit4.5,and
RISKview4.5.TheStandardversionaddsthestandardversionsofTopRank
andPrecisionTree,whiletheProfessionalandIndustrialversionsincludethe
professionalversionsoftheseprograms.DecisionToolsIndustrialadds
RISKOptimizerIndustrialaswellasbuilt-in@RISKAcceleratortoutilize
allavailableCPUsinasinglemachineduringsimulation.

DecisionToolsSuiteFeatures
EasyinstallationfromoneCD
CommonExceltoolbartoaccessallprograms
Designedtoworktogethertoprovideintegratedriskanddecisionanalysis
@RISK-RiskAnalysis
PrecisionTree-DecisionAnalysis
TopRank-What-ifAnalysis
RISKOptimizer-OptimizationwithSimulation
BestFit-DistributionFitting
RISKview-DistributionPreviewing
@RISKAccelerator-parallelprocessingtospeedupsimulations
Standard,Professional,andIndustrialVersionsAvailable
Greatvalue-saveupto$1,580!

DecisionToolsSuiteExample:
TheRestaurantFranchiseProblem
Considertheventureofopeninganewfastfoodfranchiseinyourcity.Do
youbuildarestaurantwithadrive-thruwindow,aplayground,both,or
neither?Tobegin,youneedtodeterminethecostsinvolvedtoseeifyoucan
affordtheproject.Youalsoneedtodeterminethebestsizeofrestaurantto
buildinordertomaximizeprofitsinthelongrun.Startbybuildinga
spreadsheetinMicrosoftExcel.Youmodelcouldcalculatehowmuchitwill
costtobuildarestaurantwithadrive-thruwindowandaplayground.
Buildingmaterialsandothercostsarealsoaccountedfor.

Step1:TopRankforWhat-IfAnalysis
First,runTopRankonyourmodeltodeterminethecriticalinputs.There
areover30variablesinyourmodel,butafterrunningTopRankyouseethat
onlyfivehaveamajorimpactonthecostoftheproject:cementcost(Q1),
equipment,cementcost(Q2),furniture,andlabor.Youdecideto
concentrateonthesevariablesforyourRiskAnalysis.ByusingTopRank,
youreducedtheamountofdistributionsyouneedtodefineforyourrisk
analysisbyover80%!

Step2:BestFitforDataFitting
TorunaRiskAnalysiswith@RISK,youneedtoreplacethosefivevariables
identifiedbyTopRankwith@RISKprobabilitydistributionfunctions.With
historicaldataforthesevaluesavailablefrompreviousrestaurant
constructionprojects,youfeedthesedatasetsintoBestFittoget
distributionfunctionsforeachdataset.BestFit』sconfidencelevelsand
criticalvaluesguaranteethatyouhaveaccuratelyfitteddistributionsfor
your@RISKmodel.

Step3:RISKviewforDistributionPreviewing
Now,replacethefivevaluesinyourmodelwiththefunctionsBestFit
returned.However,youhaverecentlygotteninformationfromyourfurniture
outletthatpriceshavebeendroppinglately,andnowyouneedtoreflect
thisinformationinthedistributionthatyouareusingforfurniture
price.RISKviewallowsyoutotakealookatthedistributionyouareusing
andtrydifferentparametersorfunctionstofindadistributionthatmore
accuratelyfitsthesituation.

Step4:@RISKforRiskAnalysis
Youarenowreadytorunasimulationwith@RISK!@RISKresultsshowthat
thereisan88%chancetheprojectwillstaywithinyourbudget,andan11%
chanceitwillactuallycostlessthanyour"best-casescenario".Intermsof
cost,youarereadytogoaheadwiththeproject.

Step5:PrecisionTreeRunsaDecisionAnalysis
Havingdeterminedthatyoucanbuildafastfoodrestaurantwithinyour
budget,youneedtodecidewhethertobuildadrive-thruwindowand/ora
playground.YoubuildadecisiontreeinPrecisionTreemodelingthecostsfor
obtainingabuildingpermitforthevarioustypesofrestaurants,aswell
asestimatesforprofitpotentialafterfiveyears.Yourresultsindicate
thatbuildingamedium-sizedrestaurantwithadrive-thruwindowanda
playgroundisyouroptimaldecision.

Step6:@RISK&PrecisionTreeforAdvancedAnalysis
Whataboutuncertainfactorsinyourdecisiontree?RunaRiskAnalysison
yourdecisiontreeusing@RISK.Youreplaceyourprofitandcostestimates
with@RISKfunctions.Next,simulateyourdecisiontreewith@RISK.The
resultsconfirmthatbuildingarestaurantwithadrive-thruwindowanda
playgroundwillmaximizeprofits,witha12%probabilityofmakingmoremoney
thanyoupossiblythoughtyoucould!

Step7:RISKOptimizerfortheBestSolution
Nowlet』stakeanotherlookattheoriginal@RISKmodel.Youhavedefined
five「uncontrollable」costvariablesusingprobabilitydistribution
functions,buttherearemany「controllable」factorsinyourmodelthat
couldaffecttheproject』stotalcost.Forexample,youmustdecidehowmany
peopletohire,howmuchfurnituretobuy,howmuchcementtouse.Your@RISK
analysisonlyaccountedforscenariosatasinglestateofthosecontrollable
variables.UseRISKOptimizertodeterminetheoptimalallocationofresources
forpersonnel,furniture,andcementsubjecttoconstraintssuchastotal
budgetandcementsafetyminimums.ByhavingRISKOptimizertrymanydifferent
combinations–andsimulateeachone–youfindthatyoucanbuildthe
restaurantcheaperthanyouoriginallythought!

BecomeaDecisionAnalysisExpert!
TheDecisionToolsSuitecomeswithawidevarietyofresourcestohelpyou
getstartedandovercomeproblems.Comprehensivemultimediatutorialswalk
youthroughthefeaturesof@RISK,RISKOptimizer,PrecisionTreeandTopRank
anddemonstratehowtosetupandrunmodels,step-by-step.Theusers
manualforeachapplicationiswritteninstraightforward,plainEnglish
andevenprovidesbackgroundinformationonRiskAnalysis,Decision
Analysisandothertechniques.Allmanualsarealsoavailable
electronicallyintheon-lineHelpmenus.@RISK4.5featuresacomprehensive,
context-sensitiveHelpfiletozeroinyourquestion.Youcansearchona
particulartopic,orsimplyaskaplainEnglishquestionusingthe「HowDo
I...」feature!Finally,examplefilesareprovidedforallprogramsthatcan
beusedastemplatesforbuildingyourownmodel.

Ifyouwouldlikefurtherresources,Palisadecarriesanumberofbookson
howtogetthemostfromtheDecisionToolsSuite(seebelow).Wealsooffer
SoftwareTrainingSeminarsandcustomizedon-sitetrainingclassesonthe
DecisionToolsSuiteworldwide.Theseclassesprovidehands-ontrainingonhow
tousethesoftware,andteachvaluablemodel-buildingtechniques.Visit
theseminarpagesformoredetailsandthelatestseminarschedule!Call
fordetails!

GetTheBestAnswersWithTheDecisionToolsSuite!
EachproductintheDecisionToolsSuitecanprovideanswerstoaparticular
aspectofadecisionproblem.However,forthemostcomprehensiveanalyses,
usethemtogethertoprovideamoreaccurateanddetailedanalysisthan